# [7D] Ukraine Intensifies Systemic Drone Campaign on Russia’s Refineries and Gas Plants

*Issued Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-25T11:10:43.649Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-01T11:10:43.649Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia - Southern Federal District, Russia - Volga region, Russia - Far East, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals and ESPO crude flows, Russian diesel and gasoline exports, European gas liquids (LPG, NGLs), Global petrochemical feedstocks (naphtha, ethane), Russian energy and petrochemical equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21704.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to sustain and intensify a systemic drone and missile campaign targeting Russian refineries, gas-processing plants, and petrochemical complexes beyond Afipsky, Astrakhan, and Amur. Facilities in Krasnodar, Rostov, Volga, and potentially deep-inland nodes will face repeated attacks designed to degrade Russian export capacity and strain its budget. This will force Moscow to divert more air-defense assets, engineering crews, and capital to homeland infrastructure protection, marginally reducing resources available for front-line operations. Confirmation would be multiple additional hits or attempted strikes against major energy facilities and related logistics; denial would be a marked decline in such operations or a demonstrated Ukrainian pivot away from energy infrastructure.

## Drivers

- Multiple confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Afipsky, Astrakhan, and related facilities
- Emerging trend of mutual long-range economic warfare
- Western–Ukrainian AI and strike-tech collaboration enhancing deep-strike precision
- Active pattern of ‘mass drone attack on Russian regions’ including critical energy targets