# [24H] Brent and Dubai Crude Trade with Elevated Risk Premium but Without Panic Spike

*Issued Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-25T11:10:43.649Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-26T11:10:43.649Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Europe, Asia-Pacific
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmark, WTI Crude, Energy volatility indexes, Oilfield services equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21698.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Brent and Dubai benchmarks are likely to hold an elevated risk premium of several dollars per barrel above pre-Hormuz-attack levels but are unlikely to experience an uncontrolled spike exceeding roughly 10% intraday. Markets will weigh Iranian tanker attacks and China–US sanctions confrontation against signals of reduced immediate war risk and continuing flows through Hormuz and the CPC corridor. Traders will prioritize optionality via options and spreads rather than outright directional bets, keeping volatility high but contained. Confirmation would be day-end prices modestly higher with wide intraday ranges but no parabolic move; denial would be a sudden double-digit gain driven by new kinetic disruption or hard Chinese sanctions moves.

## Drivers

- Iranian attack disabling tanker off Oman in the Strait of Hormuz
- China signaling possible retaliation over Iran sanctions
- US dialing back emergency war posture and restoring diplomats
- Kazakhstan trimming 2026 oil plans on CPC risk, affecting medium-term supply sentiment