# [24H] Russian Retaliatory Missile and Drone Barrage on Ukrainian Cities Expected Overnight

*Issued Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-25T11:10:43.649Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-26T11:10:43.649Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine - Kyiv, Ukraine - Dnipro, Ukraine - Odesa region, Ukraine - Kharkiv region
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power grid infrastructure, Rail logistics in central and eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian sovereign risk (Eurobonds), European power prices (sentiment channel)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21693.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to answer Ukraine’s deep strikes on its energy infrastructure with a retaliatory barrage targeting Ukrainian urban centers, logistics nodes, or energy facilities. Cities such as Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and Kharkiv, and key crossings like Vynohradivka, are at heightened risk of renewed Shahed, cruise missile, or glide-bomb attacks. This will increase civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, pressure Ukrainian air defenses and power-grid resilience, and justify further Western air-defense support. Confirmation would be wide-area air raid alerts, documented strikes on cities or substations, and Russian MOD framing these as retaliation for refinery hits; denial would be a pronounced 24-hour lull in Russian strategic strikes despite ongoing Ukrainian attacks.

## Drivers

- Recent Russian strikes on Kyiv’s Holosiivskyi district and Dnipro mall parking
- Russian Shahed strikes on Vynohradivka border crossing
- Pattern of tit-for-tat escalation after high-profile Ukrainian attacks
- High EUCOM threat level and sustained deep-strike duel trend