# [24H] Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Additional Russian Energy Sites Likely Overnight

*Issued Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-25T11:10:43.649Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-26T11:10:43.649Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia - Krasnodar Krai, Russia - Rostov region, Russia - Volga region, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differentials, European diesel cracks, European gasoline cracks, Russian energy equities, Black Sea shipping insurance
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21692.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch at least one additional drone or missile strike against Russian energy infrastructure in southern or western Russia, extending the current wave that hit Afipsky, Novoshakhtinsk, Astrakhan, or related nodes. Russian refinery belts in Krasnodar, Rostov, or Volga regions and associated rail or storage assets are most exposed. This will deepen Russian air-defense diversion away from front-line units, marginally ease pressure on some Ukrainian urban centers, and sustain the perception of systemic vulnerability in Russia’s economic backbone. Confirmation would be reports of fresh fires, air-defense activity, or damage at refineries, gas plants, or logistics hubs; denial would be 24 hours of claimed but unexecuted Ukrainian long-range operations and no Russian regional incident reports.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Afipsky refinery and Astrakhan gas processing plant in last 24–48 hours
- Mass drone attack across multiple Russian regions including Krasnodar
- Emerging trend of mutual strategic deep-strike economic warfare
- Ukrainian public confirmation and signaling of successful deep strikes