# [24H] Russian Missile and Drone Barrages on Ukrainian Cities Likely to Intensify Overnight

*Issued Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 5:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-25T05:08:14.926Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-26T05:08:14.926Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 72% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Kyiv region, Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Odesa and other Black Sea port regions, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power grid infrastructure, Black Sea grain export terminals, Ukrainian rail and fuel depots
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21661.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Russia is likely to respond to Ukrainian deep strikes with heavier missile and UAV salvos against Ukrainian urban and energy targets over the next 24 hours, especially Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and port infrastructure. The objective will be to blunt Ukrainian logistical resilience and retaliate symbolically for hits on Russian refineries. This will raise civilian casualties, strain air defense munitions, and risk fresh outages to power and rail, with knock-on effects for Ukraine’s industrial output and grain export flows. Confirmation would be an above-average number of KAB, cruise missile, and Shahed launches reported by Ukrainian authorities; denial would require an anomalously low strike rate despite the refinery attacks.

## Drivers

- EUCOM assessment of high-intensity Russian–Ukrainian combat and repeated Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy nodes
- Recent Russian seizure of Dolynka in Zaporizhzhia indicating offensive momentum and willingness to use heavy fires
- Historical Russian pattern of retaliatory barrages following Ukrainian deep strikes