# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Raids on Russian Refineries to Recur Within 24 Hours

*Issued Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 5:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-25T05:08:14.926Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-26T05:08:14.926Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 68% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia – Krasnodar Krai, Russia – Rostov Oblast, Russia – Southern Military District, Ukraine – entire theater
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude-linked products, Diesel and gasoline cracks in the Black Sea and Mediterranean, Russian Railways logistics capacity, European refined product importers
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21660.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukrainian forces are likely to launch at least one additional long-range drone or missile strike against Russian refining or logistics infrastructure within the next 24 hours, targeting Krasnodar, Rostov, or adjacent oblasts. The aim will be to sustain psychological and operational pressure on Russia’s fuel system and rail nodes while signaling reach to Russian domestic audiences. This will marginally disrupt regional fuel supply and force Russia to divert more air defenses and aircraft away from front-line support. Confirmation would come from fresh fire/explosion reports at Russian energy or rail assets deep in the rear; denial would be a quiet 24h period plus visible Russian counter-drone posture without new impacts.

## Drivers

- Multiple reported Ukrainian strikes on Afipsky and Novoshakhtinsk refineries plus nearby rail station overnight
- Emerging trend: Ukrainian shift to deep economic warfare focusing on Russian energy and logistics
- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Dagestan warehouses showing increased range and tempo