# [7D] Fishmeal Shortage Fears Push Global Livestock Feed Costs Up 5–8 Percent

*Issued Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-23T23:08:12.129Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-30T23:08:12.129Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Peru, China, Southeast Asia, European Union
**Affected Assets**: Fishmeal and fish oil export prices, CBOT soybean meal futures, Palm oil and rapeseed oil markets, Livestock and aquaculture sector margins
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21526.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, market concerns about Peru’s El Niño-driven fisheries emergency will drive a 5–8% increase in global livestock feed costs, as fishmeal and fish oil prices rise and substitution into soybean meal and vegetable oils accelerates. Compound feed producers will pass on some of these costs to poultry, swine, and aquaculture sectors, particularly in China and Southeast Asia. This will intensify food inflation pressures in emerging markets, prompting some governments to deploy subsidies or tap strategic grain reserves. Confirmation would be broad-based price increases in fishmeal and key feed components; denial would be rapid evidence of manageable Peruvian catches or alternative supply ramp-ups.

## Drivers

- Peru’s four-month fisheries emergency targeting anchoveta and related exports
- Global reliance on Peruvian fishmeal in feed formulations
- Tight agricultural markets already strained by climate and conflict