# [7D] Ukraine Sustains Strategic Deep-Strike Campaign, Forcing Russia to Reposition Air Defenses Inland

*Issued Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 5:07 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-23T17:07:20.532Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-30T17:07:20.532Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia, Crimea, Kursk and Belgorod regions, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Black Sea theater
**Affected Assets**: Russian fighter jets and UAVs, S‑400 and long‑range radar installations, Russian refineries and gas transmission nodes, Plesetsk space launch infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21489.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Ukraine is likely to conduct several additional waves of long‑range drone and SOF strikes against Russian air bases, high‑end radars, S‑400 batteries, and energy infrastructure as part of a systematic deep‑strike doctrine. This will compel Russia to pull some advanced air‑defense systems away from frontline and occupied‑territory coverage to shield critical rear nodes, marginally weakening protection over Crimea and parts of the Black Sea. Confirmation would be documented damage or near‑miss incidents at facilities beyond 500–700 km, along with satellite‑observed air‑defense redeployments; if Russia successfully hardens EW and counter‑UAV defenses without redeployment, the effect would be less pronounced. The campaign will heighten Russian public perception that the homeland is vulnerable, increasing domestic support for harsher retaliation but also amplifying war weariness in affected regions.

## Drivers

- Multiple coordinated Ukrainian strikes on Plesetsk, air defenses in Krasnodar, Rostov, Crimea, and a Gazprom node
- Emerging trend of Ukraine broadening and hardening deep strikes against rear infrastructure
- Evidence of Russian air‑defense blind spots after recent Ukrainian successes