# [7D] Ukrainian Deep‑Strike Campaign Expands to Additional Russian Refineries and Fuel Depots

*Issued Friday, August 21, 2026 at 5:07 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-21T17:07:55.746Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-28T17:07:55.746Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Volga–Urals region, Southern Russia, Black Sea coast, Global oil product markets
**Affected Assets**: Russian gasoline and diesel supply, European diesel crack spreads, Urals crude discounts, Global refined product shipping demand
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21251.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct further long‑range drone or missile attacks against Russian refineries and fuel depots beyond the recently hit Lukoil Perm facility, exploiting visible stress in Russia’s downstream system. Targets may include mid‑sized refineries in the Volga‑Urals region and depots supporting Black Sea fleet operations. This will deepen Russian domestic fuel shortages, complicate military logistics, and add to global refined product risk premia. Confirmation would be two or more new significant hits on Russian energy infrastructure claimed by Ukraine; denial would be a sudden Ukrainian shift away from energy targets due to Western pressure or technical limitations.

## Drivers

- Confirmed successful strike on 13 mtpa Lukoil Perm refinery
- Reported gasoline shortages in Gelendzhik and AI‑95 scarcity in St. Petersburg
- Emerging trend of mutual deep‑strike focus on energy and port systems
- Ukraine’s need to offset Russian air advantage by hitting fuel and logistics