# [24H] Ukrainian Drone Campaign Likely to Attempt Additional Deep Strikes on Russian Refineries

*Issued Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-21T11:08:36.698Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-22T11:08:36.698Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Perm Krai, Volgograd Region, Astrakhan Region, Southern Russia
**Affected Assets**: Russian inland refineries, Russian Air Force tactical aviation at Marinovka and Akhtubinsk, Russian fuel logistics to Ukraine front, Lukoil refining operations
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21215.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to launch at least one more deep‑strike drone operation against Russian energy or air bases within 24 hours, building on repeated hits at the Perm refinery and strikes on Marinovka, Akhtubinsk, and Primorsko‑Akhtarsk. Targets will likely include either the already‑damaged Perm complex or another high‑throughput refinery or airfield in Russia’s interior, aiming to sustain psychological pressure and logistical costs. Successful attacks would amplify risks to Russian fuel availability near the front and keep global energy markets pricing in a geopolitical premium. Confirmation would be Russian or Ukrainian reporting of new fires or closures at energy or air facilities; denial would be 24 hours without credible reports of new deep strikes beyond front‑adjacent areas.

## Drivers

- Multiple confirmed and claimed Ukrainian deep strikes on the Perm refinery in rapid succession
- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Marinovka, Akhtubinsk, and a drone hub in Primorsko‑Akhtarsk
- Emerging trend: Ukraine–Russia conflict shifting into deep‑strike and energy warfare phase
- Zelensky publicly validating long‑range strike capability at 1,600 km