# [7D] Ukraine Likely to Expand Deep-Strike Campaign Against Russian Oil and Power Grid Nodes

*Issued Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 11:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-20T11:08:55.094Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-27T11:08:55.094Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Tatarstan, Krasnodar Krai, Southern and Central Russia, Crimea
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery network (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel output), Black Sea and Azov Sea export terminals, Russian Railways logistics spine to Ukraine front, Global diesel and fuel oil markets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21116.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to expand its deep-strike campaign from TANECO and Tamanneftegaz to additional Russian oil refineries, storage depots, and power grid nodes that support military logistics and Crimea. This may include sites in southern Russia, the Volga region, and along crucial rail corridors feeding occupied territories. A broader campaign will stress Russian air defenses over the heartland, elevate domestic political sensitivity, and incrementally constrain Moscow’s fuel flexibility, especially for aviation and armor. Confirmation would be multiple new Ukrainian-claimed or credibly attributed strikes on Russian energy infrastructure beyond the current targets; denial would be a sharp falloff in such operations due to resource limits or Western pressure.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of mutual strategic energy and fuel infrastructure targeting
- Ukraine’s maturing long-range strike complex and clear doctrinal shift to deep strikes
- Recent success against TANECO, Taman terminal, and a key Crimea power link
- Russian ongoing strikes on Ukrainian fuel and logistics hubs incentivizing reciprocal escalation