# [7D] Ukraine Expands Strategic Drone Campaign Against Russian Refineries and Munitions Plants

*Issued Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 11:16 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-19T11:16:35.823Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-26T11:16:35.823Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia’s industrial heartland (Volga, Urals, Central Federal District), Ukraine, European energy-importing countries
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil products exports (diesel, naphtha), Urals crude differential, Russian domestic fuel prices, Russian defense industrial output, European diesel crack spreads
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21006.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional long-range drone strikes against at least two more Russian refineries, fuel depots, or munitions/manufacturing sites beyond the Ufa and Sverdlov plants already targeted. Kyiv’s goal is to stretch Russian air defenses, degrade logistics, and impose economic pain, while shaping negotiations from a stronger position. Confirmation would be fresh fires or explosions at Russian industrial sites well beyond the front, with Ukrainian-linked claims; this forecast would be blunted if Western partners privately press Kyiv to limit attacks deep in Russia and Russia’s air defenses begin consistently intercepting incoming UAVs.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Ufa refinery and Sverdlov explosives plant deep inside Russia
- Emerging trend of mutual deep strategic drone war
- Expanded Ukrainian UAV production and demonstrated range
- Reports of large drone attacks across Russia including Moscow region