# [24H] Russian Tu‑95 Missile Salvo on Ukrainian Power Grid Likely Following Deep-Strike Raids

*Issued Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 11:16 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-19T11:16:35.823Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-20T11:16:35.823Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Western Russia, Central and Eastern Europe (indirect through power flows and refugees)
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power infrastructure, European power and gas forwards, EU carbon permits (EUAs), Ukrainian hryvnia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20997.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to launch a large cruise and ballistic missile salvo from Tu‑95MS bombers and other platforms against Ukraine’s power grid and major cities. The strike would be a visible response to Ukrainian UAV attacks on the Sverdlov explosives plant, Ufa refinery, and other deep targets, aiming to re-establish deterrence and degrade Ukraine’s war-sustaining infrastructure. Massive air-raid alerts, grid outages in Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Dnipro, and claimed launches from the Caspian or Arctic regions would confirm the forecast; its failure would be signaled by continued Russian restraint and only isolated strikes despite Tu‑95 repositioning reports.

## Drivers

- Reports that Russia has shifted Tu‑95MS fleet west and completed preparations for a mass strike
- Coordinated Ukrainian deep strikes on explosives plant in Dzerzhinsk and Ufa refinery
- Recent pattern of Russian retaliatory barrages after symbolic Ukrainian hits
- EUCOM threat level assessed as elevated with dynamic air activity