# [24H] Iranian-Backed Militias Likely to Probe US Positions Near Tuz Khurmatu Within 24 Hours

*Issued Monday, August 17, 2026 at 1:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-17T01:10:00.556Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-18T01:10:00.556Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iraq, Kurdistan Region, CENTCOM AOR
**Affected Assets**: US Defense Sector Equities, WTI Crude, Iraqi Sovereign Bonds
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20601.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

With Iraqi Army units reportedly pulling back from Tuz Khurmatu and Haliwa Airfield just as the US–Iran Islamabad framework lapses, Iranian-aligned militias are likely to conduct probing rocket, drone, or roadside IED harassment against US-adjacent facilities or convoys in this corridor. The aim would be to test US red lines, signal continued Iranian reach, and exploit the emerging security vacuum without triggering immediate large-scale retaliation. US forces, Iraqi government units, and local civilians along key MSRs will face elevated ambush and indirect-fire risk. Confirmation would come from militia claims or local reports of new indirect-fire or drone incidents near Haliwa or Tuz Khurmatu; this would be disproven if militia channels stay quiet and Iraqi or US forces visibly reinforce instead.

## Drivers

- Reports of Iraqi Army withdrawals near Tuz Khurmatu and Haliwa Airfield
- Expiry of US–Iran Islamabad MoU removing formal de-escalation channel
- Pattern of Iranian use of Iraqi militias for calibrated pressure on US forces