# [7D] Iran and Proxies Expand Hybrid Maritime Campaign Across Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb

*Issued Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 7:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-15T19:09:38.438Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-22T19:09:38.438Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, Southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen
**Affected Assets**: Global crude and products flows, LNG shipping from Qatar and UAE, Red Sea container routes (Asia–Europe trade), Marine insurance and freight derivatives
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20474.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Iran and allied groups (Houthis, possibly Iraqi or other militias) are likely to broaden their attacks from individual tankers and ports to a more systemic hybrid campaign—mines, drone swarms, and harassment—across both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Targeting will remain focused on Gulf-aligned assets and Western-linked shipping, but risk to all commercial traffic will rise. This would force coalition navies to spread thin across two chokepoints, raising the odds of misidentification and accidental escalation with Iranian or proxy units. Confirmation would include at least one additional significant attack or interdiction attempt in each corridor; denial would mean Iran sharply curtailing operations under diplomatic or economic pressure.

## Drivers

- Recent Iranian strikes on Emirati and ADNOC tankers in Hormuz
- Houthi destruction of Mokha port and attacks on Aramco Najran
- Emerging trend: Iran–Gulf confrontation expanding into multi-theater chokepoint contest