# [24H] Iran Strike Talk and Houthi Claims Add One–Two Dollar Risk Premium to Brent

*Issued Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 7:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-13T19:10:09.937Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-14T19:10:09.937Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf states, Red Sea corridor, OECD importers
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gold, Energy equities (IOC and NOC), S&P 500 (energy-sensitive sectors)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20223.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, headline risk from US–Israeli strike advocacy on Iranian energy infrastructure and Houthi claims against Jizan is likely to nudge Brent crude futures up by roughly $1–2 per barrel. Traders will price in a higher probability of supply disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, even without physical damage confirmation. Safe-haven flows into gold and modest pressure on global equity indices, especially energy-intensive sectors, are probable. Confirmation would be front-month Brent closing higher with options skew shifting to calls; denial would be a flat or down move alongside explicit de-escalatory US messaging.

## Drivers

- Multiple consistent reports of CENTCOM commander urging strikes on Iranian oil, gas, power assets
- Houthis claiming successful drone hits on Saudi Aramco Jizan refinery
- US signaling of extended blockade posture and additional carrier deployment