# [24H] Wheat and Corn Futures Spike Modestly on Dual Danube and Novorossiysk Disruption

*Issued Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 1:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-13T13:10:59.179Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-14T13:10:59.179Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Black Sea region, EU grain belt, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia
**Affected Assets**: Chicago SRW Wheat, CBOT Corn, Euronext Wheat, Freight rates for grain carriers from Black Sea, Food-importing sovereign credit spreads (Egypt, Tunisia)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20199.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, wheat and corn futures are likely to move higher as markets digest renewed Russian strikes on Izmail and Ukraine’s hit on Novorossiysk grain terminals, signaling two-way risk to Black Sea and Danube flows. Traders will assign a higher probability to episodic export interruptions from both Ukraine and Russia. Import-dependent MENA and African buyers may accelerate tenders or advance purchases to hedge against further disruption. Confirmation would be a 2–5% rise in near‑dated wheat and corn contracts with commentary citing Black Sea risks; denial would be flat or declining prices despite the port attacks.

## Drivers

- Documented Russian strike on Izmail grain port
- Confirmed Ukrainian barrage damaging Novorossiysk grain terminal operations
- Warnings that Danube and Black Sea export nodes face sustained disruption risk