# [24H] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strike Wave on Russian Refineries and Ports Within 24 Hours

*Issued Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 1:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-13T13:10:59.179Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-14T13:10:59.179Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Ukraine, Black Sea, Caspian-adjacent Russian regions
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Urals crude differential, Diesel crack spreads, Fuel oil markets, Dry bulk and tanker day rates in Black Sea
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20193.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch additional drone or missile strikes against Russian refineries, logistics hubs, or Black Sea–linked ports, extending the ongoing campaign beyond Orsk, Salavat, and Novorossiysk. The goal will be to further erode Russia’s fuel export capacity and naval freedom of action while signaling that its interior remains exposed. This will keep Russian air defense assets tied down in rear areas and marginally ease pressure on parts of the Ukrainian frontline. Confirmation would include new reported strikes or intercepts against Russian energy, port, or logistics facilities in the deep rear; denial would be a clear 24‑hour lull in cross‑border infrastructure attacks.

## Drivers

- Recent confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Orsk and Salavat refineries
- Large, coordinated Ukrainian barrage on Novorossiysk fleet and port infrastructure
- Emerging trend of mutual deep-strike escalation targeting critical infrastructure
- Ukrainian drones already hitting logistics and Wildberries hub in Bashkortostan