# [7D] Venezuela’s Rising Output to Quietly Offset Part of Iran-Related Supply Risk in Oil Markets

*Issued Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 7:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-13T07:10:39.589Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-20T07:10:39.589Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Venezuela, United States Gulf Coast, Europe, Caribbean shipping lanes
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Heavy and medium-sour crude benchmarks, PDVSA and partner company debt, U.S. Gulf Coast refining margins
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20181.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, market participants will increasingly price Venezuela’s reported rise to 1.2 mb/d as a partial buffer against potential Iranian export disruptions, limiting the upside in Brent despite Operation Economic Fury. U.S. and European traders will explore expanded term deals or swaps with PDVSA and its multinational partners, subject to license conditions, to diversify medium-sour exposure. This will modestly improve Venezuela’s fiscal outlook and bargaining position with Washington while complicating OPEC+ cohesion. Confirmation would be new or expanded offtake agreements, charter activity from Venezuelan ports, and commentary from refiners; disconfirmation would be fresh sanctions or U.S. license reversals curbing Venezuelan flows.

## Drivers

- Venezuela reporting crude production at 1.2 mb/d with expectations of persistence
- Prospect of tighter Iranian exports under new U.S. sanctions
- Refiners’ preference for diversified medium-sour sources
- Recent history of conditional U.S. sanctions easing on Venezuela