# [24H] RSF Offensive on al-Obeid to Trigger New Civilian Exodus in Central Sudan

*Issued Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 7:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-13T07:10:39.589Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-14T07:10:39.589Z (21h from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: North Kordofan, Sudan, Khartoum, Sudan, Neighboring Sudanese states hosting IDPs
**Affected Assets**: Humanitarian aid supply chains, Regional food markets, Road and logistics infrastructure in central Sudan
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20174.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the coming 24 hours, renewed RSF assaults and drone strikes on al‑Obeid and surrounding areas are likely to force additional thousands of civilians to flee toward already strained towns and IDP sites in central and eastern Sudan. With state capacity degraded, humanitarian organizations will struggle to provide food, medical support, and protection, particularly for women and children. The intensifying conflict will also disrupt key road corridors linking Khartoum, Kordofan, and Darfur, complicating aid delivery and potentially spiking local food prices. Confirmation would be reports from UN and NGOs of new displacement waves and blocked routes; disconfirmation would require a verified ceasefire or halt in RSF operations around al‑Obeid.

## Drivers

- AFRICOM reporting RSF renewed assault on al-Obeid and expanded drone attacks
- High-intensity RSF operations in Khartoum and multiple fronts
- Preexisting humanitarian crisis and weak state logistics in Sudan
- Patterns of displacement during prior offensives