# [24H] Israeli Airstrikes in Southern Lebanon to Continue at Current Tempo, Risking Hezbollah Counter-Fire

*Issued Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 7:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-13T07:10:39.589Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-14T07:10:39.589Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Lebanon, Northern Israel, Eastern Mediterranean
**Affected Assets**: Israeli Air Force platforms and munitions stocks, Hezbollah rocket and missile arsenals, Energy infrastructure and shipping near Israeli coast, Defense equities in Israel and Lebanon-exposed instruments
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20168.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Israel is likely to maintain or slightly intensify airstrikes on Hezbollah-linked infrastructure in southern Lebanon, including areas like al‑Mansouri and Deir Siryan. Hezbollah will probably respond with limited rocket or ATGM fire toward northern Israel, calibrated to avoid a full-scale war but enough to sustain deterrence signaling. The persistence of this exchange keeps the northern front active, tying down Israeli air and ground assets and complicating U.S. regional de-escalation efforts. Confirmation would be additional IAF strike reports and localized rocket fire; a contrary scenario would be a sudden public ceasefire arrangement brokered by the U.S. or France.

## Drivers

- Ongoing Israeli air operations against targets in southern Lebanon
- CENTCOM assessment of persistent escalation potential on the northern front
- No current evidence of a binding ceasefire mechanism
- Hezbollah’s long-standing pattern of proportional retaliation