# [24H] Russian Forces to Press Localized Ground Assaults Around Lyman and Donetsk Settlements

*Issued Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 7:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-13T07:10:39.589Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-14T07:10:39.589Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian ground combat brigades, Russian maneuver and artillery units, NATO lethal aid planning, Regional rail and road corridors in eastern Ukraine
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20167.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Russian ground forces are likely to sustain company-scale assaults around newly retaken areas such as Lyman, Krasnyi Kut, and adjacent settlements in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts to consolidate and modestly expand their gains. Ukrainian units will respond with local counterattacks and increased drone/artillery harassment, maintaining high casualty rates on both sides without major operational breakthroughs. Tactical Russian advances would strain Ukrainian defensive reserves and logistics in the sector, marginally improving Russia’s bargaining position and information narrative. Confirmation would be additional village-level capture claims from Russian MoD and geolocated imagery; disconfirmation would be verified Ukrainian recapture of one or more of the newly lost settlements.

## Drivers

- Recent Russian capture of at least ten settlements and re-establishment of control over Lyman
- Sustained pattern of village-scale attritional fighting in eastern and northeastern Ukraine
- Russian political need to demonstrate progress amid deep Ukrainian strikes
- No evidence of immediate large-scale operational pause