# [24H] Ukraine to Launch Follow-On Drone Probes Against Russian Interior Targets After Salavat Strike

*Issued Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 7:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-13T07:10:39.589Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-14T07:10:39.589Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia – Bashkortostan, Russia – Western and Southern Federal Districts, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian domestic logistics networks, Russian power and fuel infrastructure, War risk and political risk insurance for Russia, Russian rail and trucking operators
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20166.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct smaller follow-on UAV sorties probing Russian rear logistics and energy sites, though on a reduced scale compared with the latest 362-drone wave. Targets will likely include secondary depots, warehouses, and possibly power infrastructure in western and southern Russia to test air-defense coverage and sustain psychological pressure. This will marginally increase risk to Russian internal transport and insurance costs, but without decisive infrastructure losses. Confirmation would be Russian and local reports of new downed or impact drones across multiple oblasts; a contrary scenario would be a complete absence of reported UAV activity and explicit Ukrainian messaging about conserving stockpiles.

## Drivers

- Recent exceptionally large Ukrainian drone campaign deep into Russia
- Confirmed or reported hits on Wildberries logistics hub and Salavat refinery
- Emerging trend of mutually escalating deep-strike campaigns
- Ukraine’s demonstrated willingness to accept cross-border escalation costs