# [7D] Ukraine Likely to Expand Deep-Strike Campaign to Additional Russian Energy and Port Assets

*Issued Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 1:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-12T13:10:50.084Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-19T13:10:50.084Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 67% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia (Krasnodar, Volga region), Black Sea ports, Ukraine, Downstream energy-importing states
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery throughput, Urals and ESPO export volumes, Global diesel and gasoline spreads, War-risk and hull insurance for Russian-linked shipping
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20088.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to replicate the Novorossiysk and Orsk pattern by targeting at least one additional Russian refinery or port-linked energy asset, probably in the Black Sea, Volga, or southern regions. The aim will be to stretch Russian air defenses, degrade export resilience, and signal that no rear-area energy node is secure. Confirmation would be new strikes causing at least temporary shutdowns at another refinery or damage to export terminals, accompanied by Ukrainian claims or suggestive leaks. A strong U.S. pushback or demonstrably tighter Russian defenses intercepting most incoming drones could delay or blunt this expansion.

## Drivers

- Recent successful strikes on Orsk refinery and Novorossiysk port and naval assets
- Emerging trend: Ukraine’s strategic drone campaign eroding Russian sanctuary
- Visible Russian adaptation of shadow fleet with anti-drone measures, indicating perceived vulnerability
- Kyiv’s strategic focus on Russian energy revenue and logistics as war-sustaining targets