# [24H] Russian Follow-On Drone and Missile Strikes Expand Against Ukrainian Power Grid Tonight

*Issued Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 1:13 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-12T01:13:49.241Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-13T01:13:49.241Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Ukraine, Central Ukraine, Eastern Ukraine, Neighboring EU states connected to Ukraine’s grid
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power generation and transmission infrastructure, European day-ahead power prices, Natural gas demand in Central Europe, Air-defense missile inventories
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/20026.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

After the large Geran-2 attack on Kherson, Russia is likely to conduct additional drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities in other regions in the next 24 hours as part of a coordinated winter-preparation campaign. High-probability targets include substation clusters and thermal plants in central and eastern Ukraine. This will stress Ukraine’s air-defense ammunition and accelerate preparations for rolling blackouts, while signaling to Europe that winter energy flows through Ukraine remain at risk. Confirmation would be new multi-vector strikes on power infrastructure reported by Ukrainian authorities; denial would be a pause in energy-targeted attacks, with strikes focusing instead on frontline logistics only.

## Drivers

- Reported rare, large Geran-2 strike on Kherson’s power grid with at least 12 impacts
- Separate warning that Russia is stockpiling several thousand Geran drones for winter energy attacks
- Trend of Russian adaptation to industrial-scale drone warfare and deep strikes