# [7D] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strikes on Russian Radar and Drone Hubs to Blind Black Sea A2/AD

*Issued Friday, August 7, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-07T12:58:41.379Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-14T12:58:41.379Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Crimea, Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Southern Russia
**Affected Assets**: Black Sea Grain and Oil Export Routes, Ukrainian Power Infrastructure, Russian Domestic Fuel Supply in Southern Regions, Regional Airspace Risk Premiums
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/19495.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to follow its claimed hits on Crimean radar and drone nodes with additional deep strikes on Russian early‑warning, EW, and logistics hubs in Crimea, Kherson, and possibly Krasnodar. The goal will be to degrade Russia’s ability to coordinate Geran‑type drone attacks and to weaken Black Sea air‑defense coverage ahead of further attacks on naval and port targets. This campaign will increase the chance of Russian retaliatory missile salvos on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, sustaining high civilian risk. Confirmation would be new strikes on radar, EW, and fuel depots with geolocated damage; denial would be an observable shift back to purely frontline engagements.

## Drivers

- Ukraine’s General Staff reporting strikes on radar, drone launch sites, and fuel/repair facilities
- Recent Ukrainian sea‑drone attacks on Yalta and Crimean infrastructure nodes
- Sustained trend of mutual deep‑strike drone and missile warfare
- Ukraine’s incentive to erode Russian air-defense and ISR around the Black Sea