# [30D] Iran Leverages Hormuz Crisis to Court BRICS and Global South Against US Maritime Control

*Issued Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 6:58 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-06T18:58:33.657Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-05T18:58:33.657Z (30d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Iran, BRICS member states, Global South maritime importers, UN and international legal fora
**Affected Assets**: Sanctions-compliant shipping and insurance markets, Non-dollar trade settlement systems, Iran-linked oil barter and gray market channels
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/19421.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next month, Iran is likely to use the Hormuz confrontation to position itself as a champion of 'free navigation' against US dominance, appealing to BRICS and Global South states through diplomatic fora, legal complaints, and joint naval symbolism. Tehran will seek statements or abstentions that erode Western unity on maritime sanctions enforcement, even if few states explicitly endorse its shipping bans. This narrative battle could influence how major importers such as India and China structure their Gulf shipping and insurance strategies, subtly tilting global governance debates on sanctions and chokepoints. Confirmation would be coordinated statements in BRICS or UN bodies criticizing US actions and echoing Iranian framing; denial would be key Global South states lining up publicly behind US enforcement.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of Global South leveraging BRICS and regional courts to rebalance geopolitical dependence
- Iran’s escalation of legal and regulatory claims over Hormuz shipping lanes
- US expansion of de facto blockade enforcement on Iranian ports