# [7D] Global Diesel and Jet Fuel Spreads Widen on Russian Refinery Damage and Gulf Transit Fears

*Issued Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 6:58 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-06T18:58:33.657Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-13T18:58:33.657Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia-Pacific
**Affected Assets**: ICE Gasoil futures, NY Harbor ULSD, Jet fuel benchmarks (Platts Singapore, Northwest Europe), Major airline equities, Shipping and logistics costs
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/19413.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, global diesel and jet fuel spreads versus crude are likely to widen as markets internalize both the reported outage of roughly 43% of Russian refining capacity and the risk of Hormuz shipping constraints. European and African importers will be hit hardest, facing higher landed costs and potential sporadic shortages, while US refiners benefit from export opportunities but confront domestic political backlash over fuel prices. Airlines and heavy industry will face rising hedging costs and may pass through price increases to consumers, adding to inflation momentum. Confirmation would be sustained strength in diesel and jet cracks across Europe and Asia; denial would require either rapid restoration of Russian refining or an unexpected de-escalation in Hormuz.

## Drivers

- OSINT assessment of around 43% of Russian refining offline due to Ukrainian strikes
- Confirmed deeper damage to YANOS refinery’s crude tanks and primary units
- Escalating US–Iran confrontation around Hormuz and ship insurance risk