# [24H] Ukrainian Drone Campaign Likely to Hit Additional Russian Logistics or Fuel Nodes

*Issued Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:59 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-06T12:59:10.031Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-07T12:59:10.031Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Southern Russia, Occupied Southern Ukraine, Black Sea Region
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differentials, European diesel cracks, Brent time spreads, Russian domestic fuel prices
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/19368.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional long-range drone or missile strike against Russian logistics or fuel infrastructure following the successful Yaroslavl and Ufa refinery attacks. Rail hubs, storage depots, and secondary refineries feeding western Russia or Crimea will be prime targets. This will further stress Russia’s regional fuel distribution and may draw more aggressive Russian missile salvos on Ukrainian energy and urban infrastructure in retaliation. Confirmation would be OSINT on new explosions or fires at Russian logistics sites; a pause in deep strikes despite opportunity would weaken this forecast.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of industrial-scale Ukrainian deep-strike campaign on Russian logistics and refineries
- Recent confirmed strikes on Yaroslavl Slavneft-YANOS and Bashneft-Novoil Ufa refineries
- Reports of Ukrainian drones targeting Mariupol–Chonhar supply route and Flamingo missile launches towards Russian regions