# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Raids on Russian Refineries Persist After Yaroslavl Swarm

*Issued Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 6:59 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-06T06:59:04.530Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-07T06:59:04.530Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Central Russia, Ukraine, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: Russian domestic fuel supply, Urals crude differentials, Diesel and gasoline cracks in Europe, Russian rail and road logistics firms
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/19337.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch at least one additional long-range UAV strike against Russian energy or logistics infrastructure, though probably smaller than the latest Yaroslavl barrage. Targets will likely include refineries or fuel depots in western Russia, maintaining psychological pressure and forcing Russia to keep high-value air defenses dispersed. Continued strikes will exacerbate Russian air-defense munition burn and complicate fuel distribution to frontline forces. Confirmation would be new verified explosions or fires at Russian energy sites; denial would be a complete absence of reported deep strikes coupled with credible Ukrainian acknowledgment of an operational pause.

## Drivers

- Record-scale Ukrainian drone attack on Yaroslavl refinery with reported fires and disruption
- Emerging trend: industrial-scale Ukrainian deep-strike campaign against Russian logistics and refineries
- Recent multiple attacks on Slavneft‑YANOS and Wildberries logistics hubs indicating targeting pattern