# [7D] Ukraine Expands Drone Warfare to Additional Russian Commercial Hubs and Secondary Refineries

*Issued Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 7:23 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-04T07:23:41.680Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-11T07:23:41.680Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Moscow region, St. Petersburg region, Volga and Central Federal Districts
**Affected Assets**: Russian e-commerce and retail logistics, Domestic Russian fuel distribution, Insurance for Russian industrial facilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/19132.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within a week, Ukraine is likely to broaden its drone campaign to strike at least one new category of Russian commercial infrastructure, such as regional distribution centers, rail marshaling yards, or smaller refineries not yet hit. This will be aimed at forcing Russia to defend a sprawling economic rear, stretching air defense assets and sowing daily disruption for consumers. Western capitals will tacitly accept this as long as civilian death tolls stay limited, but the risk of escalation grows if strikes consistently hit civilian-rich targets. Confirmation would be OSINT-verified attacks on previously untouched economic nodes; denial would require a visible operational pause or clear political constraints on Ukrainian targeting.

## Drivers

- Documented strikes on multiple Wildberries logistics centers
- Repeat attacks on Syzran and other refineries
- Sustained trend of Ukraine targeting Russian logistics and energy hinterland