# [7D] Mutual Deep-Strike Campaign Expands Russia–Ukraine War Into Normalized Rear-Area Targeting

*Issued Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 2:03 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-02T14:03:36.461Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-09T14:03:36.461Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 78% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: European Russia, Eastern and Central Ukraine, Black Sea littoral, Belarusian and Baltic airspaces indirectly
**Affected Assets**: Russian downstream oil sector, Ukrainian power and logistics infrastructure, Cargo and energy insurance premia, European gasoil and naphtha markets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18919.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, both Russia and Ukraine are likely to normalize high-tempo deep strikes against each other’s critical infrastructure, including refineries, air bases, logistics hubs, and command posts, extending the war’s effective battlespace hundreds of kilometers beyond front lines. Ukraine will concentrate on Russian refineries, radar networks, and logistics nodes such as Wildberries hubs, while Russia will answer with further hits on Ukrainian logistics centers, power facilities, and urban industrial sites. This evolution will raise civilian economic disruption in both countries and draw global insurers and commodity traders more deeply into the conflict calculus. Confirmation would be multiple additional successful cross-border strikes per week on high-value infrastructure; denial would be an unexpected lull due to munitions shortages, diplomatic pressure, or a major operational setback.

## Drivers

- Coordinated Ukrainian strikes on Saratov refinery, Krasnodar air defenses, and Samara logistics hubs
- Russian missile strikes on Nova Poshta terminals and Ukrainian infrastructure
- Emerging trend: mutual deep-strike normalization across Russia–Ukraine theater
- Ukraine’s industrial drone surge reshaping deterrence against Russia