# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Wave Likely to Continue Hitting Russian Rear Air Defenses

*Issued Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 2:03 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-02T14:03:36.461Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-03T14:03:36.461Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia, Central Russia, Eastern Ukraine, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: Russian S-300/S-400 and Tor-M2 systems, Engels strategic aviation base, Russia domestic logistics hubs (Wildberries, depots), Ukrainian critical infrastructure threatened by retaliation
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18911.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch additional long-range UAV and missile strikes targeting Russian radar, air-defense batteries, and logistics nodes in Krasnodar, Bryansk, and adjacent interior regions to exploit recent successes. Russian air-defense gaps created by hits on Yeisk/Primorsko-Akhtarsk assets and Engels-related infrastructure incentivize Kyiv to push a window of opportunity while Moscow recalibrates coverage. This will increase Russian domestic pressure to retaliate with larger missile barrages on Ukrainian infrastructure and could prompt Russia to shift scarce modern SAM systems away from frontline support toward deep rear defense. Confirmation would be fresh reported strikes or attempted strikes on air-defense or aviation bases in southern Russia; denial would be an abrupt Ukrainian tactical pause or visible constraints such as bad weather or elevated Russian interception rates with limited damage.

## Drivers

- Multiple recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian radars and air defenses in Krasnodar
- Confirmed waves of Ukrainian drones across Azov and Black Sea regions and deep interior
- Emerging trend: industrial-scale Ukrainian long-range drone warfare