# [24H] Ukraine Likely to Launch Follow-On Drone Strikes Against Russian Refineries Within 24 Hours

*Issued Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 8:02 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-02T08:02:21.331Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-03T08:02:21.331Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Ukraine, Volga Region, Samara Oblast, Saratov Oblast
**Affected Assets**: Russian refining capacity, Russian military logistics, Russian strategic aviation
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18881.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next day, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional long‑range UAV strike against Russian refining or logistics targets, building on the current Saratov/Ufa/Wildberries wave. The military aim will be to exploit confusion in Russian air defenses and maintain psychological pressure deep in Russia’s rear. This will further normalize strategic‑depth attacks and force Russia to reallocate air defenses away from the front, marginally easing pressure on Ukrainian lines. Confirmation would be fresh Russian claims or OSINT imagery of new refinery/logistics fires; denial would be a complete absence of long‑range strikes despite clear opportunity and public Ukrainian signaling.

## Drivers

- Massive ongoing Ukrainian UAV swarm with hits on Saratov refinery and Wildberries logistics hubs
- Emerging trend of industrial‑scale Ukrainian long‑range drone warfare
- Repeated overnight reporting of hits or attempted hits on Engels airbase and multiple refineries