# [7D] Ukraine Civilian Casualties Mount as Russia Continues FAB Bombs and Drone Strikes on Urban Targets

*Issued Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 9:07 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-26T21:07:20.870Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-02T21:07:20.870Z (7d from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power, fuel, and logistics infrastructure, EU humanitarian aid budgets, Refugee reception and social services in neighboring states
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18631.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next seven days, Russian forces are likely to continue or intensify use of mass FAB glide-bomb strikes and drone/guided-bomb attacks on Ukrainian cities such as Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia, producing significant additional civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction. Commercial facilities like supermarkets, fuel depots, and warehouses will remain frequent targets, amplifying economic disruption and internal displacement. The sustained bombardment will boost Ukrainian and Western calls for expanded air-defense support and could fuel support for more permissive rules on Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia. Confirmation would be multiple new mass-casualty incidents in urban areas and OSINT imagery of FAB and drone impact sites; disconfirmation would be a notable decline in such strikes or a shift back toward purely military targets away from cities.

## Drivers

- EUCOM assessment of intense combat with FAB bomb strikes and civilian-targeted attacks
- Recent Russian drone and bomb attacks on Chernihiv supermarket and Zaporizhzhia fuel/warehouse sites
- Sustained pattern of Russian attacks on dual-use and civilian infrastructure