# [7D] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strike Campaign on Russian Refineries and Logistics Hubs

*Issued Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 3:07 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-26T15:07:53.601Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-02T15:07:53.601Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia (Tyumen, Kirov, Black Sea coast), Occupied Crimea, Ukraine, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: Urals and ESPO crude differentials, Russian diesel and gasoline exports, European diesel cracks, Russian domestic fuel prices, Shipping in Black Sea and Azov
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18595.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Ukraine is likely to mount additional long-range drone and missile attacks on Russian oil refineries, logistics centers, and military-industrial plants, extending the pattern seen at Tyumen, Crimea energy sites, and Kirov’s Avitek defense plant. Kyiv aims to strain Russian fuel logistics, degrade weapons production, and impose financial costs while signaling reach into Russia’s rear. This will push Russia to harden critical infrastructure and potentially retaliate with intensified strikes on Ukrainian energy and civilian commerce nodes. Confirmation would be multiple claimed Ukrainian hits on Russian industrial sites beyond the front; denial would be an abrupt operational pause or visible diplomatic pressure from key partners to scale back.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Tyumen refinery, Chornomornaftogaz, Crimean logistics and drone sites
- Recent strike on Avitek defense plant in Kirov
- Emerging trend of Ukraine targeting Russian energy and logistics
- Western economic pressure converging with maritime enforcement and energy shocks