# [7D] Ukraine Intensifies Long-Range Drone Campaign on Russian Energy Infrastructure

*Issued Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 9:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-26T09:08:06.007Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-02T09:08:06.007Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Siberia, European Russia, Crimea, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude export flows, Russian domestic fuel supply, European diesel and fuel oil markets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18567.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to expand drone and possibly missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure beyond the Antipinsky refinery and Crimean power plants, targeting refineries, depots, or ports that support Russia’s war logistics or export revenue. Kyiv will seek to impose a cost directly on Russia’s energy economy while signaling to Iran and other backers that enabling Moscow carries risks. Russia will respond with further massed strikes on Ukrainian cities and power grids. Confirmation would be additional verified strikes on Russian refineries or export terminals; denial would be a discernible operational pause in Ukrainian deep strikes.

## Drivers

- Follow-up strike on Antipinsky refinery in Tyumen
- Ukrainian drone hit on Tavricheskaya power plant in Crimea
- Emerging trend of Ukraine externalizing pressure to Russian and Iran-linked assets