# [30D] Red Sea and Hormuz Risks Sustain Elevated Energy Prices Despite Dangote Refinery Expansion News

*Issued Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 9:06 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-25T21:06:42.792Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-24T21:06:42.792Z (30d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 72% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, ICE Gasoil and gasoline cracks, LNG freight rates, Nigerian crude and product differentials
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18524.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, persistent security risks in the Red Sea and around Hormuz are likely to keep Brent and key product benchmarks trading at a structural premium relative to early-summer levels, overshadowing the medium-term bearish signal from Dangote’s $2.5B refinery expansion. Markets will price in the probability of intermittent Saudi or Gulf refining disruptions and shipping route diversions, supporting higher cracks for middle distillates and LNG freight rates. Dangote’s expansion will mainly dampen African and Atlantic Basin product spreads expectations beyond the 30-day horizon, offering little immediate relief. Confirmation would be sustained elevated prices and risk premia despite news of future capacity; denial would be a sharp correction driven by resolved security issues.

## Drivers

- Renewed Houthi and Iranian attacks on regional energy and US-linked infrastructure
- CENTCOM threat level assessed as high, and regional war-risk premiums
- Dangote refinery funding signaling future, not immediate, supply increases