# [30D] Escalating Economic Warfare in Ukraine and Russia Deepens Civilian Hardship on Both Sides

*Issued Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 3:06 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-25T15:06:54.902Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-24T15:06:54.902Z (30d from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Western and Central Russia, Border regions near logistics hubs
**Affected Assets**: Civilian energy and transport services, Food supply chains, Public health systems, Humanitarian organizations’ access
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18500.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next month, the intensifying economic targeting between Ukraine and Russia—fuel depots, ports, refineries, and grids—will materially worsen civilian living conditions in both countries, though Ukraine will bear a heavier relative burden. In Ukraine, repeated power and fuel disruptions will strain health services, small businesses, and agriculture, increasing internal displacement and mental health stress; in Russia, localized shortages, pollution from refinery fires, and rising prices will feed quiet discontent, especially in regions far from Moscow. Both governments will harden information control to manage public reactions, making it harder for humanitarian actors and independent media to track needs. Confirmation would be growing evidence of service outages, localized protests, or spikes in domestic inflation tied to attacks; denial would be limited follow-on economic strikes or unexpectedly robust infrastructure resilience. The human cost of this economic war will outlast any front-line territorial changes.

## Drivers

- Trends of mutual deep-strike economic warfare and Russian economic targeting of Ukraine
- Recent large-scale refinery and infrastructure strikes by Ukraine inside Russia
- Evidence of escalating attacks on Ukrainian ports, fuel, and emergency services