# [24H] Brent and Diesel Spreads Edge Higher as Red Sea and Russian Refineries Stay Under Fire

*Issued Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 3:06 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-25T15:06:54.902Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-26T15:06:54.902Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Europe, Middle East, West Africa, Latin America
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, ICE Gasoil futures, Saudi sovereign CDS, Russian energy equities, Tanker freight rates Red Sea–Europe
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18479.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Brent crude and European diesel cracks are likely to trade modestly higher as traders price in sustained risk to Saudi Red Sea assets and Russian refining. Continued fires at Tyumen’s Antipinsky refinery plus Houthi threats to Jizan–Yanbu will tighten perceived flexibility in middle distillate supply, even as Russia signals lifting its diesel export ban. Sovereign CDS for Saudi Arabia and Russia could see small widening as energy infrastructure risk is repriced. Confirmation would be a 1–3% uptick in Brent and a noticeable rise in gasoil/Brent spreads; denial would be clear reports of limited damage, rapid restoration at Antipinsky, and a quiet period in Houthi operations. Short-term, refiners in Europe and West Africa gain margin; import-dependent states in Africa and Latin America face incremental price strain.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Antipinsky refinery and ongoing fires
- Houthi missile and drone attacks on Jizan and Yanbu and declared naval blockade
- Warnings about elevated risk premium in crude benchmarks