# [24H] Ukraine Deep-Strike Drones Likely to Hit Another Russian Energy or Logistic Node

*Issued Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 3:06 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-25T15:06:54.902Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-26T15:06:54.902Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western and Central Russia, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil refineries, Rail and logistics hubs, Russian air defense stockpiles, Ural blend-linked derivatives
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18476.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct at least one additional long-range drone or missile strike against Russian infrastructure, prioritizing oil refineries, logistics hubs, or ports. The recent Tyumen Antipinsky hits and attacks on Kirov and Rostov warehouses show intent to stretch Russian air defenses and raise domestic economic pain. New strikes will marginally degrade Russian refining/export flexibility and force Moscow to divert more high-end air defense systems from the front to deep rear areas. Confirmation would be Russian or Ukrainian statements on fresh fires at refineries or depots; denial would be a clear weather-related pause or public Ukrainian focus on defensive actions only. Each successful hit nudges the conflict further into strategic economic warfare rather than purely battlefield attrition.

## Drivers

- Recent confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Antipinsky refinery and other deep targets over 2,000 km away
- Emerging trend: cross-border drone warfare as strategic economic disruption
- Ukraine claiming attacks on Caspian vessels and command posts in Belgorod and Crimea