# [24H] Houthis Likely to Launch Follow-On Missile or Drone Salvo Toward Saudi Red Sea Assets

*Issued Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 9:07 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-25T09:07:16.664Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-26T09:07:16.664Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb
**Affected Assets**: Saudi Aramco refining and export terminals (Jizan, Yanbu), Red Sea tanker traffic, Patriot air defense systems, Regional aviation routes over the Red Sea
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18446.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Houthi forces are likely to attempt at least one additional missile or drone attack against Saudi Red Sea energy or port infrastructure, most plausibly Jizan, Yanbu, or nearby offshore tanker traffic. The recent successful hit on Jizan, plus a claimed strike on a Saudi gas tanker and fresh intercepts near Yanbu, create strong incentives in Sana'a and Tehran to demonstrate persistence and deterrence. Another salvo would further stress Saudi and Greek-operated Patriot defenses, increase the probability of leakage, and raise pressure on Riyadh to escalate air operations over Hodeidah and surrounding areas. A confirmed fresh strike attempt with ballistic or long-range drones toward Jizan/Yanbu or Bab el-Mandeb shipping would validate this; an abrupt public ceasefire signal from the Houthis or visible U.S.-brokered de-escalation would undermine it.

## Drivers

- Multiple Houthi missile and drone strikes on Jizan and a tanker in Bab el-Mandeb in last 48h
- Fresh intercepts of ballistic missiles targeting Yanbu refinery
- CENTCOM threat level at CRITICAL with explicit reference to Yemen–Saudi escalation
- Pattern of Houthi behavior emphasizing follow-on attacks after initial success