# [30D] Gulf States Accelerate Alternative Export Corridors and Horn of Africa Basing Strategy

*Issued Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 3:07 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-25T03:07:08.919Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-24T03:07:08.919Z (30d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Red Sea corridor, Horn of Africa (Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti)
**Affected Assets**: Planned and existing oil and product pipelines bypassing Hormuz, Port and logistics investments in the Horn of Africa, Local political stability and governance in host states
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18440.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 30 days, Gulf producers—especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE—are likely to publicly announce or quietly implement measures to expand alternative export corridors, including additional capacity via the Red Sea, overland pipelines, and enhanced basing in the Horn of Africa to secure these routes. The convergence of Hormuz closure risk and Red Sea threats will drive investments in ports, security partnerships, and proxy militias in states like Eritrea, Sudan, and possibly Somalia. This will reshape regional power balances, entangle fragile Horn governments in Gulf rivalries, and complicate Western naval and diplomatic strategies. Confirmation would be new basing agreements, port deals, or joint military exercises; a credible resolution of Hormuz and Red Sea tensions would slow but not halt this pivot.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of UAE and Gulf partners expanding forward basing in the Horn of Africa
- Chronic disruption of Red Sea and Hormuz shipping
- Recent attacks on Jazan terminal and Saudi vessel in the Red Sea