# [24H] Iranian Ballistic Impacts on Jordanian Territory or Nearby U.S. Sites Likely

*Issued Friday, July 24, 2026 at 5:02 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-24T05:02:32.689Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-25T05:02:32.689Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Israel, Iran, Persian Gulf
**Affected Assets**: U.S. regional bases, Patriot and THAAD batteries, Jordanian Air Force infrastructure, Gulf airline traffic, Defense contractors (Raytheon, Lockheed Martin)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18294.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, at least one of the reported Iranian ballistic missiles is likely to impact inside Jordan or in close proximity to U.S. or coalition facilities there. This would force immediate U.S. and Jordanian force protection measures, including base lockdowns, air-defense engagements, and possible evacuation or dispersal of non-essential personnel. Confirmation would harden U.S. targeting of Iranian command-and-control and missile units, deepening the existing air campaign beyond coastal regions. A complete Iranian recall of missiles or visible in-flight interceptions away from sensitive sites, paired with de-escalatory Iranian messaging, would weaken this forecast.

## Drivers

- Reports of Iranian ballistic launches toward Jordan
- Iran’s demonstrated willingness to strike U.S. facilities in Kuwait
- Tehran rejecting a ceasefire proposal and activating air defenses
- Pattern of U.S.–Iran strikes expanding across multiple Iranian regions