# [7D] Iran–US–Israel Air and Missile Exchange Likely to Entrench Into Sustained Campaign Across Gulf Bases

*Issued Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-23T23:02:44.440Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-30T23:02:44.440Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar
**Affected Assets**: Patriot and THAAD Missile Defense Stockpiles, US Defense and Aerospace Equities, Gulf Sovereign CDS and Currencies, Brent Crude, Regional Airline Routes
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18276.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, the current Iran–US–Israel flare-up is likely to solidify into a sustained air and missile campaign targeting US and allied bases across Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and potentially Qatar and UAE. Iran will use both direct launches and proxy actors, while the US and Israel will respond with repeated waves of precision strikes against IRGC infrastructure and air defenses. This will push regional militaries into wartime footing, accelerate munitions expenditure, and stress missile-defense inventories. Confirmation would be repeated, geographically distributed strikes every 24–72 hours; denial would require a mutually agreed ceasefire framework or credible third-party mediation freezing long-range fires.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend noting shift into sustained region-wide strike-and-counterstrike campaign
- Recent Iranian strikes on US forces in Jordan, Kuwait, and AWS Bahrain
- US airbridge surge and defense budgeting oriented toward long-term confrontation