# [24H] Iranian Anti-Ship Missile and Drone Harassment of Hormuz Shipping Expected to Intensify

*Issued Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-23T23:02:44.440Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-24T23:02:44.440Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Oman, UAE, Eastern Saudi Arabia, Indian Ocean
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, LNG spot prices (Asia and Europe), Tanker Freight Rates (VLCC, Suezmax), Marine War Risk Insurance Premia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18268.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Iran will likely increase harassment of merchant shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, combining additional anti-ship cruise missile launches with drones and fast-boat shadowing. Commercial vessels already waiting for transit authorization will face extended delays, and some shipowners may opt to reroute around Africa. This will deepen naval crowding and raise miscalculation risks, including accidental or opportunistic hits on non-US-flagged tankers. Confirmation would include multiple missile/drone launch reports and AIS-based loitering or sudden course changes; denial would involve a verifiable Iranian order to stand down and USN-escorted convoys passing unharmed.

## Drivers

- Reports that Iran has already fired anti-ship missiles toward Hormuz
- Iran’s declared closure of the Strait of Hormuz with tankers awaiting transit
- Pattern of Iran using maritime chokepoints as coercive leverage