# [24H] Brent Crude Stays Near $100 as Red Sea and Gulf War-Risk Premium Locks In

*Issued Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 11:02 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-23T11:02:35.010Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-24T11:02:35.010Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Middle East, Europe, Asia-Pacific importers
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, Tanker freight indices (WS rates, Baltic Dirty Index), Energy equities and CDS on major IOC/NOC issuers
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18218.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Brent crude prices are likely to hold near or just above the $95–$100 range as markets price in sustained risk to Gulf and Red Sea shipping rather than immediate volume loss. Attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, US–Iran strikes near key ports, and fears of further Gulf infrastructure hits will keep backwardation steep and volatility high. Refiners and traders will prioritize supply security, shifting cargoes and accepting higher freight and insurance costs, particularly for Middle East–to–Europe routes. Confirmation would be elevated implied volatility, strong Brent–WTI spreads, and rising war-risk premiums; denial would be a coordinated de-escalation statement from Washington, Tehran, and Riyadh.

## Drivers

- Daily brief noting war risk premium already pushing Brent toward $100
- Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and ships turning back from Bab el-Mandeb
- US strikes near Bushehr and other Gulf-adjacent sites
- Iranian threats to halt all oil exports and strike energy infrastructure