# [24H] Houthi Missile or Drone Attack on Red Sea Shipping Corridor Imminent

*Issued Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 5:02 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-22T17:02:12.889Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-23T17:02:12.889Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Horn of Africa littoral
**Affected Assets**: Dirty tanker freight indices, Saudi Aramco equity, Dubai and Riyadh stock indices, Marine war-risk insurance premia, Egyptian pound (via Suez Canal fee risk)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18135.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Houthi forces are likely to attempt at least one missile, drone, or explosive boat attack against commercial shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb, with a preference for Saudi-flagged or U.S.-aligned vessels. The objective will be to operationalize their declared maritime embargo and exploit the distraction created by U.S.–Iran escalation in the Gulf. Successful strikes or even near-misses will compel shipowners to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, tightening tanker availability and raising freight rates. Intercepted launches or credible reports of attempted attacks on AIS-tracked vessels would confirm; a sudden Houthi acceptance of a mediated pause would contradict.

## Drivers

- Joint maritime center report that Houthi forces have completed preparations for Bab el-Mandeb attacks
- Saudi crude tankers already reversing course in the southern Red Sea
- Houthi-declared maritime embargo and recent attacks on ships
- Iran–U.S. confrontation widening, offering cover and justification for Houthi action