# [24H] U.S. Air Campaign Over Iran Persists for 12th Night With Expanded Target Set

*Issued Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:02 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-22T11:02:05.812Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-23T11:02:05.812Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iran, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Iraq, Jordan
**Affected Assets**: Iranian air-defense networks, IRGC bases and depots, Sirik and Khuzestan oil and petrochemical infrastructure, U.S. bomber and tanker fleets in CENTCOM
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18108.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

U.S. forces are likely to conduct another wave of strikes inside Iran within 24 hours, sustaining the pattern of nightly operations and gradually expanding from air-defense and IRGC infrastructure to selected logistics and coastal assets. The immediate effect will be to further stress Iranian air defenses around Tehran, Khuzestan, and key Gulf-facing ports such as Sirik, and to complicate IRGC operational planning. This risks collateral damage in urban peripheries and misidentification of dual-use infrastructure, which could become rallying points for Iranian domestic backlash and harden Tehran’s resolve. Confirmation would be satellite-validated impact locations or public U.S. statements about new strikes; a sudden U.S. pause tied to urgent diplomacy at the UN would challenge this forecast.

## Drivers

- Confirmed 11th straight night of U.S. strikes across Iran including over Tehran and Tabriz
- Explosions reported in Khuzestan cities (Behbahan, Mahshahr, Omidiyeh) and around Sirik port
- Iranian attacks killing U.S. soldiers in Jordan, raising pressure on Washington to demonstrate deterrence
- CENTCOM threat level assessed as CRITICAL with strike–counterstrike dynamic described as sustained