# [24H] Iranian Missile and Drone Harassment of Jordan and Kuwait Bases Likely to Continue Today

*Issued Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:02 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-22T11:02:05.812Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-23T11:02:05.812Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Gulf Cooperation Council states
**Affected Assets**: U.S. forward-deployed forces, Patriot and THAAD batteries, Regional airports and ports around Aqaba and Kuwait, Commercial aviation routes over northern Red Sea and northern Gulf
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18107.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Iran is likely to conduct limited follow-on missile or drone launches toward U.S.-linked bases in Jordan and/or Kuwait, focused on signaling rather than mass casualties. U.S. and partner air defenses will probably intercept most inbound threats, but even near misses over Aqaba, Eilat, or Kuwaiti facilities will sustain perceptions of direct battlefield contact. This keeps U.S. forces in a high-alert posture, raises risks of targeting or radar errors, and increases the chance of accidental hits on civilian or commercial infrastructure. Confirmation would be new launch reports from Iranian territory or proxies, plus interception or impact claims by Jordan, Kuwait, or the U.S.; a complete halt in launches, paired with de-escalatory statements from Tehran, would undercut this forecast.

## Drivers

- Fresh Iranian launches toward Aqaba and claimed strikes on U.S. assets in Kuwait between 08:10 and 10:00 UTC
- Pentagon confirmation of a U.S. KIA in Jordan from earlier Iranian attack, increasing pressure for visible resolve
- IRGC threats to target U.S. and Israeli commanders in their homes, indicating willingness to cross previous red lines
- Sustained pattern of nightly U.S. strikes on Iran creating a tit-for-tat dynamic